bridge21 weekly rate update
The USD:MXN rate traded over 20.4:1 Friday before crashing to 20.16:1 as of this writing. Bitcoin heads sideways and looks like it may roll over.
Short-term USD:MXN forecast
Last week we predicted “We think a correction is likely this week, with a modest dip in exchange rates.”.
That prediction came true Friday, with rates correcting from above 20.4:1 way down to 20.16:1 as of this writing.
We predict rates will be higher next Monday than they are today.
Bitcoin is overdue for a steep correction.
This week let’s (somewhat arbitrarily) look at the year-to-date chart for the BTC:USD pair on Coinbase.
We’ve had a strong rally to above 50k USD levels from much lower lows around 29.5k USD, following a previous all-time-high of 64k USD.
Our prediction is that Bitcoin will roll over and face a steep price drop in the coming weeks. Again, if we break 64k USD, all bets are off and the sky is the limit, but lower prices seem more probable, likely far lower prices.
Longer-term USD:MXN rate forecast
This week let’s look at a 17 year chart of the USD:MXN rate.
While both the US Dollar and MX Peso have been massively devalued over the period of this chart, the MX Peso has consistently lost value at a faster rate than the US Dollar. The long-term uptrend in this currency pair has not been broken since the 2008 financial crisis.
This is why, as always, our long-term prediction is continued devaluation of the MX Peso against the US Dollar, and higher exchange rates. It would take a major currency shock to break the trend, and even then a correction in the rate is likely to be transient. Don’t fight the Fed (unless your rate of return exceeds the trend of long-term relative devaluation).
Best regards,
Will -bridge21.com
The content in this update is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material in this update as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. While we took care to share correct information from reputable sources, bridge21 cannot guarantee the accuracy or timeliness of the information.
